Zespri sees even sweeter kiwifruit future 新西兰佳沛预计未来猕猴桃市场乐观
▲A picture of pollinating kiwi fruit
Zespri’s five-year outlook report presents upbeat prospects for the sector through to the end of the decade, albeit with some cautions around a volatile global environment and continuing challenges of illegal plantings in China.
The report notes that Zespri continues to experience a level of demand for SunGold fruit running ahead of supply and remains positive about consumers’ preparedness to pay a premium for the branded fruit.
Zespri的五年展望报告为该行业提供了到本十年末的乐观前景，尽管对动荡的全球环境和中国非法种植的持续挑战持谨慎态度。
该报告指出，Zespri继续经历对SunGold水果的需求超过供应的水平，并对消费者愿意为品牌水果支付溢价持积极态度。
▲充分授粉的红心猕猴桃
Zespri kiwifruit fall into the “top 3” fruit choices in 10 out of 15 markets, with demand outrunning supply on both locally grown and globally sourced Zespri-branded fruit.
SunGold is expected to remain the main driver of demand, with supply increasing from 130 million trays this year to 153 million by 2030. The report also picks ongoing strength for the traditional Green fruit based off its health and nutritional attributes.
Zespri猕猴桃在15个市场中的10个市场中跻身“前三”水果选择之列，当地种植和全球采购的Zespri品牌水果的需求都超过了供应。
预计SunGold仍将是需求的主要驱动力，供应量将从今年的1.3亿托盘增加到2030年的1.53亿托盘。该报告还根据其健康和营养特性，为传统的绿色水果挑选了持续的优势。
▲Sungolen kiwifruit harvest
However, Green volumes are anticipated to fall from about 60 million trays this year to 50 million by 2030 as growers convert to other varieties.
That reduction is expected to keep some tension in Green returns, with value per tray anticipated to rise by 28% between now and 2030 to $9 a tray.
然而，随着种植者转向其他品种，预计到2030年，绿色产量将从今年的约6000万托盘下降到5000万托盘。
预计这一减少将使Green的回报保持一定的紧张状态，从现在到2030年，每个托盘的价值预计将增长28%，达到每个托盘9美元。
▲Sungolen kiwifruit harvest
SunGold is expected to lift by 19% to $12.50 a tray and RubyRed by a massive 32% to $16.50 a tray.
But despite the optimistic outlook, the report does not shy away from the pressing issue of illegally grown Chinese SunGold fruit, known as UAG3 plantings.
预计SunGold将上涨19%，至每桶12.50美元，RubyRed将大幅上涨32%，至每桶16.50美元。
尽管前景乐观，但该报告并不回避非法种植的中国SunGold水果（即UAG3种植）这一紧迫问题。
▲Golden kiwifruit harvest
The unauthorised plantings have grown to cover an estimated 8387 hectares, producing about 40 million trays. That area almost eclipses New Zealand’s SunGold area of about 8900ha.
Of the 40 million trays, Zespri estimates 20 million are equivalent to its premium Class 1 fruit in quality.
未经授权的种植面积估计已达8387公顷，生产了约4000万个托盘。该地区几乎超过了新西兰约8900公顷的SunGold地区。
Zespri估计，在4000万个托盘中，有2000万个托盘的质量相当于其优质的1级水果。
▲Golden kiwifruit harvest
The fruit is being sold under competing brands in China at 60-70% of the Zespri value. Some is also sold as counterfeit Zespri-branded product, the most lucrative outlet for it.
It has not proven possible to pull these plantings out but Zespri has been pursuing legal channels to curb the growth in additional plantings, including prosecuting three people selling $700,000 worth of fruit.
这种水果在中国以Zespri价值的60-70%的价格在竞争品牌下销售。有些还作为假冒的Zespri品牌产品出售，这是最赚钱的销售渠道。
事实证明，将这些种植园拔出是不可能的，但Zespri一直在寻求法律渠道来遏制额外种植园的增长，包括起诉三名出售价值70万美元水果的人。
▲Kiwi pollen pollination
They received a NZ$125,000 fine and three months’ jail time.
Increased competition, illegal or otherwise, is cited as a key challenge globally, with larger volumes of all coloured fruit entering the market particularly during the northern hemisphere supply window, filling demand in NZ’s off season.
他们被处以12.5万新西兰元的罚款和三个月的监禁。
竞争加剧，无论是非法的还是其他的，都被认为是全球面临的一个关键挑战，大量有色水果进入市场，特别是在北半球供应窗口期间，满足了新西兰淡季的需求。
▲RubyRed kiwifruit harvest
The major opportunities identified in the report hark to the spinoff benefits of growing middle classes within populations globally. With that comes rising wealth and rising average ages, with people over 60 tending to consume more fruit.
The lingering effect of the covid pandemic has also delivered an upside, with a marked increase in awareness of mental health, self-care and nutrition.
报告中确定的主要机遇是全球人口中中产阶级不断壮大的附带利益。随之而来的是财富的增加和平均年龄的上升，60岁以上的人倾向于消费更多的水果。
新冠肺炎疫情的持续影响也带来了好处，人们对心理健康、自我保健和营养的认识显著提高。
▲Sungolen kiwifruit harvest
Fresh fruit consumption in Zespri’s core markets is also expected to grow at a rate of 2% a year between now and 2030, and significant headroom exists for Zespri to push further into household fruit consumption.
Estimates are Zespri has less than 30% global household penetration, meaning less than a third of households consume a Zespri fruit once a year at least.
从现在到2030年，Zespri核心市场的新鲜水果消费量预计也将以每年2%的速度增长，Zespre进一步进军家庭水果消费市场的空间很大。
据估计，Zespri在全球家庭中的渗透率不到30%，这意味着不到三分之一的家庭每年至少食用一次Zespri水果。
▲Golden kiwifruit after artificial pollination
From a supply perspective, Zespri intends to release a further 400ha of SunGold licences next year, 400ha the year after and then 350-500ha between 2027 and 2029.
Meantime plans to expand its current 5000ha of northern hemisphere fruit supply will be dependent upon the grower vote, due to close on December 5.
从供应角度来看，Zespri计划明年再发放400公顷的SunGold许可证，后年发放400公顷，2027年至2029年发放350-500公顷。
与此同时，扩大目前北半球5000公顷水果供应的计划将取决于种植者的投票，投票将于12月5日结束。
▲Red heart kiwifruit orchard in Sichuan Province, China
Latest released figures show the RubyRed variety still only account for 1.5 million trays but this is expected to grow to almost 8 million by 2030.
However, Zespri acknowledges the fruit’s continuing small size is a consumer concern, something that could have a long-term detrimental effect upon the brand variety.
最新发布的数据显示，RubyRed品种仍然只占150万个托盘，但预计到2030年将增长到近800万个托盘。
然而，Zespri承认，这种水果持续的小尺寸是消费者关注的问题，这可能会对品牌品种产生长期的不利影响。
▲使用锂电池的猕猴桃电动授粉机
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